Twilio released their Q1 2020 earnings report on May 6. The results stunned the market – they beat Q1 estimates and raised projections for Q2 by a wide margin. Growth was across the board – benefitting from COVID-19 specific use cases and their broad platform offering, as companies flock towards digitizing customer communications. The market reacted the next day by driving TWLO stock up over 39% to close at nearly $171. All analysts raised their price targets significantly. Commentary on the earnings call was very positive. Let’s take a deeper look at the results, customer wins, overall market trends and then draw some conclusions for the investment thesis going forward.
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Zendesk released their earnings report for Q1 2020 on April 30, 2020. Results were mixed – they beat Q1 estimates, but lowered revenue projections for Q2 due to COVID-19 impact on customers. The market reacted the next day by pushing ZEN stock down 5.6%, although some of that drop has recovered since then. Most analysts lowered their price targets. Zendesk leadership also retracted prior FY 2020 guidance, until they have more clarity around the duration of the COVID-19 economic downturn. Let’s take a deeper look at the results and draw some conclusions for the investment thesis.
Continue readingOkta is the leading independent provider of identity services. While their roots have been in controlling employee access to enterprise applications, Okta has recently doubled their TAM by providing identity management for consumer apps. Almost every modern digital application requires its users to verify their identity. Facilitating this process has become a necessary software building block. Okta supports this capability with a suite of robust platform services, which developers can consume through well-documented APIs. Okta’s packaged software products are built on top of these platform services, driving a continuous feedback loop. Okta’s product offerings target an enormous addressable market, the combination of both workforce and customer identity. Strong secular trends in enterprise employee mobility, cloud migration and digital transformation are driving this market and Okta occupies the pole position. The company is led by two co-founders with deep SaaS domain experience. To help investors better understand the opportunity, I will dig into Okta’s technology underpinnings, financials, product portfolio, addressable market and competitive landscape. This will provide an investment framework which investors can use to monitor Okta’s progress going forward.
Continue readingDocusign is a leading provider of agreement services. While most investors are familiar with their eSignature solution, they have recently expanded their product suite to address the full lifecycle of contract management. As digital agreements become a common step in enterprise workflows and online marketplaces, DocuSign is well positioned to meet the demand. For developers, they offer an open platform and broad set of APIs. Large customer additions have been strong, driving 39% revenue growth over the last year. In this post, I will dig into the company’s history, financials, product portfolio, addressable market and competitive landscape. While the stock has enjoyed a 35% gain year to date, for investors with a long term perspective, DOCU represents a solid choice.
Continue readingOver the last couple of months, I have noticed several prominent software companies announcing new platform offerings. This goes beyond a marketing tactic, as most are backing the move with substantial new capabilities and tooling to add “programmability”. These extensions are meant to appeal to solution builders, in addition to their existing product users. While the companies will still offer packaged products, they are opening up their underlying software services for outside developers to build their own custom applications. The rationalization is an expectation that this will drive incremental revenue from usage fees, as developers launch brand new businesses or internal teams at enterprises tackle adjacent use cases. Also, some leading SaaS companies haven’t rolled out full platform offerings, but might benefit from it. In this post, I will examine what makes for a productive platform play, several recent examples of this trend and how it might apply to other point solution providers. The platform potential of a software company is an important consideration for investors. If executed successfully, it can substantially magnify the long term growth opportunity for a company’s stock.
Continue readingDatadog is a leader in monitoring solutions for cloud-scale applications. They are experiencing significant growth in a large addressable market that is a core beneficiary of digital transformation initiatives. While competitive offerings have recently stepped up, Datadog still enjoys impressive customer expansion. Their product development velocity is breakneck, doubling the number of paid solutions in the last year. Looking forward, they have additional opportunities in adjacent markets. The company is led by two technical co-founders. I will dig into the company’s history, financials, product portfolio, addressable market and competitive landscape. This will set a foundation and investment framework which investors can use to monitor Datadog’s progress going forward.
Continue readingInvestors are probably familiar with the latest trend among stock-picking sites and analysts to publish a list of technology stocks that will likely benefit from the COVID-19 situation. While obvious picks like ZM, WORK and TDOC are usually mentioned, I haven’t seen Twilio included. This is understandable, as the Twilio brand is usually suppressed in end-user applications that utilize its services. Yet, as the leading provider of programmable communications, many of these types of solutions for social distancing (video collaboration, messaging, chat, email, etc.) could be built on Twilio’s platform. Over the last couple of weeks, Twilio (TWLO) has announced several product extensions and ready-made templates that provide solutions for connecting and notifying people in a COVID-19 impacted environment. In this post, I’ll highlight some of the recent announcements from Twilio and implications for incremental use of their platform.
Continue readingOn March 17, MongoDB (MDB) released earnings results for Q4 FY 2020 and provided estimates for FY 2021. Q4 results far exceeded expectations. FY 2021 estimates were tempered by anticipated impact from COVID-19. They also announced a CTO leadership change. The market reacted the next day by initially spiking the stock price up 9.6%, but then closing down by 7.7% in a late day sell-off. A lot of the volatility can be attributed to COVID-19 market gyrations. Since then, the stock has recovered and is now trading about 23% above it’s pre-earnings price. Analyst reactions to the results were mixed, with expected price cuts due to the macro environment, but positive feedback for leadership’s transparency over headwinds in 2020 with COVID-19. Let’s take a detailed look at the results.
Continue readingOn March 17, Smartsheet (SMAR) released earnings results for Q4 FY 2020. Overall, Q4 results exceeded expectations and this year’s projections are encouraging, considering the macro environment. The market responded favorably, pushing the stock price up by 2.9% the following day, in spite of a broad sell-off due to COVID-19 concerns. Analyst commentary was positive. Let’s take a deeper look at the results.
Continue readingAfter releasing strong Q4 2019 earnings results in early February, Zendesk (ZEN) promised investors some exciting product announcements at their annual customer event, Zendesk Relate, scheduled for the first week of March. Unfortunately, due to concerns with COVID-19, Zendesk cancelled the in-person event. However, they still made a number of product announcements and held a virtual analyst event on March 4. While the cancellation of Relate and the evolving COVID-19 situation will impact Zendesk’s business in 2020, their strong product development motion and new offerings will expand their leadership in customer service and support their foray into customer relationship management.
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