Investing analysis of the software companies that power next generation digital businesses

Tag: NET (Page 1 of 2)

Cloudflare (NET) Q2 2023 Earnings Review

Following a disappointing Q1 earnings report highlighted by challenges in the go-to-market effort, Cloudflare demonstrated renewed momentum in Q2. The sales reorganization is progressing well. Large enterprises expanded spend, adding to multi-product subscriptions across several categories. In parallel, profitability measures continue to improve with growing operating margin and cash flow.

With a mission statement to help make a better Internet, Cloudflare’s product strategy is grounded in disruption. By owning and operating a network of data centers in 300+ cities worldwide, Cloudflare enters product categories with the assumption that they can deliver better service than incumbents through lower cost, improved performance and greater customization.

This messaging appears to be resonating with new enterprise customers. In Q2, Cloudflare landed their largest Zero Trust deal to date, pushing paid seats in a single customer deployment past 25,000. A critical requirement to land new enterprise Zero Trust deals is to have existing ones as reference customers. Several major Zero Trust customer wins in Q2 may provide the tipping point for future large enterprise adoption.

The developer platform (Act 3), is starting from a smaller base, but is experiencing rapid growth. The number of Worker applications reached 10M in Q2, quadrupling since Q3 of 2022. R2 usage accelerated to 85% sequential growth in Q2, up from an impressive 25% q/q rate in Q1. These products are showing up in new customer wins, contributing to near record additions of $100k, $500k and even $1M ACV customers.

As part of Investor Day, the leadership team showed how Cloudflare’s largest customers are also those adopting multiple product subscriptions. Similar to peers in software infrastructure that report on customers paying for 4+, 6+ and even 8+ products, Cloudflare is demonstrating that an expanding product offering can drive incremental revenue. Over the last four years, the attach rates for customers with 8+, 9+ and 10+ product subscriptions have more than doubled. These customers now contribute the majority of Cloudflare’s annual revenue.

For fast-growing start-ups establishing a software and security stack from scratch, Cloudflare’s platform appears particularly appealing. This is evidenced by the rapid uptake from many of the leading AI companies. As developer-led organizations, Cloudflare’s bottoms-up sales motion naturally resonates. A new CRO with enterprise sales experience will help Cloudflare win business where a top-down approach is needed as well.

Continue reading

Cloudflare (NET) Q1 2023 Earnings Review

After setting an optimistic target for full year 2023 revenue growth in early February, Cloudflare management was forced to reset guidance lower after sales cycles unexpectedly elongated in March. While this can be attributed to exogenous effects like banking turmoil and macro conditions, investors are left guessing whether the Q1 results were a one-time speed bump or a precursor to further deceleration in growth.

This dilemma would be difficult to reconcile had we been left with just the Q1 report. That earnings call conflated a few contributors to the underperformance, including longer customer sales cycles and a restructuring of the GTM team. Fortunately, Cloudflare leadership scheduled an Investor Day a week later, which provided a much clearer picture of the performance drivers and a better understanding of Cloudflare’s plan to address these challenges.

Stepping back, Cloudflare’s history and future growth are grounded in disruption. An investment in Cloudflare represents a bet that their architecture choices and platform strategy will allow them to penetrate new markets through lower cost, better performance and a more robust feature set. They have applied these architectural advantages to pursue an enormous addressable market, representing some of the fastest growing segments of software and security infrastructure.

Cloudflare’s elevated valuation relative to peers hinges on the market’s assumption that Cloudflare will continue to innovate and increase enterprise adoption of their newer product categories like Zero Trust, network services and a distributed developer platform. Rapid expansion in these areas will offset the gradual decay of growth rates in their traditional product offerings like DDOS, application security and CDN.

Continue reading

Cloudflare (NET) Q4 2022 Earnings Review

Cloudflare’s Q4 FY2022 earnings report was much anticipated by the market. Like other software infrastructure companies with their fiscal Q4 aligned to the calendar year, investors received their first firm view of guidance for not just the current quarter, but also the full year of 2023. Given trends that I discussed in a prior post, results from the hyperscalers pointed to further deceleration in cloud utilization as a consequence of workload “optimization” by customers. As the hyperscalers generally only project results a quarter forward, investors lack a clear signal as to when optimization headwinds might abate. A few software companies reported in the interim, providing some support for a view that software infrastructure demand might level out over the full year.

Additionally, as part of their Q3 2022 earnings report, Cloudflare leadership recognized the milestone of a $1B revenue run rate with a new ambitious growth target. They expect to reach a $5B revenue run rate within 5 years – specifically meaning that revenue in Q3 2027 would be $1.25B. This implies a revenue CAGR of 38% for the next 5 years. With the demand environment deteriorating further since the Q3 report in early November, investors were left to wonder if Cloudflare would have to revise this target coming into 2023. Close followers of the company would have noticed that they quietly reiterated the goal in a press release announcing a leadership hire in January.

Nonetheless, coming into the Q4 report analysts were looking for $1.312B in revenue for FY2023, representing growth of 34.6% over their FY2022 estimate. Surprisingly, Cloudflare issued guidance for revenue of $1.330B – $1.342B, representing growth of 37.0% at the midpoint above the actual FY2022 revenue. In this environment, where most software companies are just meeting or even lowering the forward year revenue estimate, Cloudflare’s initial guide a couple points above expectations seemed detached from reality. Assuming they follow a standard, but subdued beat/raise cadence as the year progresses, they might even end 2023 with revenue growth around 40%. This would outpace most peers in the software and security space.

This full year guide left analysts perplexed. Some just don’t believe it, assuming Cloudflare management is setting themselves up for failure. Guggenheim even reiterated their Sell rating, after having downgraded the stock in January. They raised their price target slightly from $36 to $43, and expressed that “2023 revenue guidance implies an unlikely material increase in new business signings from that seen in 2022.” In their view, Cloudflare’s execution risk is much higher with this guide.

Continue reading

Cloudflare (NET) Q3 2022 Earnings Review

Expectations for Cloudflare’s Q3 2022 report were high, particularly following their strong Q2 earnings. As macro headwinds weighed on the quarter’s performance, NET sold off following the report. While I don’t see anything troubling in the results within the context of the flagging IT demand environment, the market’s reaction is understandable given uncertainties going forward. Downward pressure on NET was exacerbated by a general sell-off in software companies, following underperformance from SaaS mainstays like Atlassian.

In this post, I will cover the highlights from Cloudflare’s Q3 results, focusing on growth drivers, profitability measures, customer activity and product highlights. I will tie this commentary back to the general thesis for investment in Cloudflare, concluding that the broader story hasn’t changed. Additionally, our partners over at Cestrian Capital Research recently published a review of the earnings report, including financials and technical analysis. Interested readers can check out that coverage for another point of view, as they consider an investment in NET.

Continue reading

Cloudflare Birthday Week Recap

After promoting 20 products and enhancements to general availability during GA Week, Cloudflare rolled through Birthday Week with even more announcements. The pace of product execution is staggering. As is typical with Birthday Week, we got a view into what to expect next from the Cloudflare product team, along with some interesting new go-to-market programs. These were all couched under Cloudflare’s mission to help build a better Internet, with a thoughtful balance of monetized and free services.

As with GA Week, I was impressed by the breadth of announcements. These spanned multiple product categories and several stand to leapfrog product capabilities forward, potentially ahead of competition. We are also seeing more examples of disruptive pricing models, where Cloudflare is leveraging their massive network scale and ownership of infrastructure to undercut competitive offerings. They appear poised to capitalize on their long time investments in data centers and global network capacity.

To get caught up on Cloudflare’s announcements from GA Week, readers can check out my prior coverage. For Birthday Week, Cloudflare provided a treasure trove of information through their blog, Cloudflare TV and press releases. This content was consolidated into a Birthday Week landing page and a handy end-of-week listing of all announcements.

In this post, I’ll try to review all the major announcements from Birthday Week and provide some perspective on what each implies for Cloudflare’s business growth. Our partners over at Cestrian Capital Research recently published an update on Cloudflare, including financials and technical analysis. Interested readers can check out that coverage as they consider an investment in NET.

Continue reading

Cloudflare GA Week Recap

After a break of just a few months, Cloudflare scheduled two of their Innovation Weeks back to back. The first was dubbed GA Week and brought a number of beta products to general availability. This served to clear the decks for Birthday Week, which is when Cloudflare traditionally introduces their next wave of future products. While expectations are always high, Cloudflare really delivered A LOT.

They announced so much, that I have to break my coverage into two posts and limit the depth to the major announcements. I consolidated all the GA Week news into this blog post summarizing the major changes, including perspective on what this means for Cloudflare’s evolving product offering. As I write this, Birthday Week is ongoing, delivering even more exciting announcements. I plan to cover that as well and will publish a summary sometime next week.

Continue reading

Cloudflare (NET) Q2 2022 Earnings Report

Cloudflare (NET) announced Q2 FY2022 earnings on August 4th, demonstrating better than expected resilience to the macro backdrop, in contrast to many software infrastructure peers struggling with more acute softening of demand. Cloudflare beat revenue projections for Q2 and raised estimates for the remainder of the year. More significantly, they demonstrated a renewed commitment to deliver positive free cash flow, reversing the backsliding in Q1’s report. Growth in large customer additions hit a new record, illustrating Cloudflare’s ability to cross-sell their product suite to enterprises across multiple categories. While DBNRR ticked down a point, leadership is committed to crossing the rarefied threshold of 130%. The market favored the results as the stock popped 27% the following day.

I will share a summary of my reactions to the report, structured around financial performance, product activity and Cloudflare’s broader strategy. I won’t rehash all of the metrics, as those are readily available online in the earnings report and Investor Presentation. Additionally, investors new to the Cloudflare story can catch up on the narrative through my prior coverage.

Continue reading

Does Karma Count When Evaluating Technology Companies?

Contributing to the collective good isn’t a metric that we investors often include in our analysis of companies. This is what I generally label as “karma” – a bucket of activities taken on by companies (some more than others) that don’t appear to be directly related to a business goal. As investors, these activities may help us feel good about our companies at a superficial level, but can also raise questions about financial discipline. For some investors, these activities evoke visceral responses like “this is a business, not a charity.”

Continue reading

Cloudflare One Week in Review

Cloudflare held another innovation week from June 20 – 24, this time focused on Zero Trust solutions. They introduced a number of new capabilities and aligned their marketing message around what is expected for a full-featured Zero Trust SASE platform. Included in this were comparisons to offerings from other vendors. While Cloudflare is not considered the leading SASE provider by industry analysts at this point, these latest developments bring them a step closer to feature parity. At minimum, they check all the boxes for a marketable SASE platform and have a growing stable of customers. The question for investors will be whether they can continue to move upmarket, win larger deals and displace leading providers for enterprise spend in this growing category of the security market.

In this post, I will review Cloudflare’s Zero Trust offering, the product announcements made this past week and the opportunities for Cloudflare to increase their share of the market.

Continue reading

Cloudflare Platform Week Recap – Workers

This is my second installment of coverage on Cloudflare’s Platform Week, held from May 9th – 16th. In my prior post, I focused on the announcements related to new data products. These included several exciting new offerings to round out capabilities available to developers to store, process and distribute data. Highlights were a new relational database (D1), their R2 object store moving to GA (with pricing), a publish-subscribe system (Pub/Sub) and a time series database (Analytics Engine). Each of these provides developers with another tool for building modern Internet applications to run in a decentralized fashion across the edge of Cloudflare’s network. These products are also being monetized, which should start contributing to revenue going into 2023.

For this next post, I will focus on the announcements related to their core development runtime, the Workers engine. Cloudflare announced a number of key features during Platform Week that will make Workers easier to extend, combine and configure. These product improvements should open up Workers to more developers and application use cases. Additionally, they have removed any philosophical adoption argument based on perception of being a proprietary system.

Continue reading
« Older posts