Software Stack Investing

Investing analysis of the software companies that power next generation digital businesses

Page 14 of 15

MongoDB at Needham Growth Conference

On January 14, MongoDB (MDB) presented at the Needham Growth Conference. Michael Gordon, the CFO and COO, represented MongoDB. I always enjoy listening to Michael’s perspective because of his dual role – he can speak to both the financial position, as well as the business operations and long term strategy of the company. He has a strong grasp of the database landscape and how MongoDB offerings are positioned within it.

Listening to the presentation, I had a couple of take-aways. As readers know, I am long-term bullish on MongoDB. My optimism is driven by a few factors – 1) the overall size/growth of the data storage market, 2) the current “database refresh” occurring as a result of new app development and re-architecture of legacy systems, and 3) MongoDB’s popularity with developers and leading position in coding bootcamp curriculums.

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Fastly (FSLY) Stock Review

Fastly (FSLY) is a leading edge cloud platform. While they support traditional CDN use cases, their focus and future growth opportunity lies in enabling edge computing. Edge computing represents a large addressable market and Fastly is rapidly rolling out new product offerings in this area. They are developer-centric with strong appeal to the developer community, due to their advantages in performance, security and programmability. Fastly has broad penetration among a set of forward-thinking enterprise customers and is experiencing high DBNER. They are founder led, with a strong leadership team. For these reasons, I think FSLY stock is worth consideration as part of a long term investment portfolio.

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Alteryx at Needham Growth Conference

On January 14, Dean Stoecker, Alteryx’s CEO, and Kevin Rubin, the CFO, spoke at the Needham Growth Conference. This conference included many of the software stack companies we track (MDB, DDOG, APPN, SMAR, etc.). Listening to the presentation, I had a couple of encouraging take-aways that further reinforce my long term view on Alteryx stock performance. I am bullish on AYX. Interested readers can review my prior recommendation.

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MongoDB to Benefit from NoSQL Tailwinds

As readers know, I am long on MongoDB, making a purchase recommendation in Nov 2019 for a 5 year holding period. Growth will be driven by their rapidly expanding product offering in an enormous addressable market. The database product is developer-friendly and represents a popular choice for start-ups and new software projects. The pace of enterprise migrations is increasing as companies revisit their legacy database infrastructure and MongoDB expands into adjacent use cases, like search and data warehousing.

I recently came across an article and a podcast that further reinforced the growth of opportunities for “NoSQL” solutions relative to relational databases going into the future. I will share the salient points and provide some analysis of what these trends mean for MongoDB’s growth trajectory.

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Analysts Name Twilio Top Pick for 2020

As the new year has started, many analysts are publishing their “Top Pick” lists for 2020. This has favored well for several software stack companies so far this month, following the sell-off in many high growth cloud/software names we experienced in 2H2019. Coming out of this, on Jan 7th, two analysts named Twilio to their Top Pick lists for 2020. I have been long in Twilio and was happy to see this affirmation to start the year.

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Implications of 2020 Priorities for CIOs

Back in December, CIO Magazine published an article listing the Top 5 strategic priorities for CIOs in 2020. Now that 2020 has started, we should examine how these priorities might impact the stock performance of related software stack companies. Focus on improvements in analytics, customer support and workforce automation are highlighted. Investment into these areas by enterprise IT organizations should drive demand for product offerings from several of our favorite software stack companies.

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Smartsheet and the Citizen Developer

Date of Recommendation:       December 26, 2019 
Closing Stock Price:          $43.93

Smartsheet (SMAR) is a leading provider of collaborative work management tools for enterprises. Their flexible, no-code platform allows users to automate common business workflows like project tracking, request approval processing, customer onboarding, event registration and sales pipeline management. This automation is accomplished without writing custom code, allowing developers to focus on building higher-value customer-facing software.

Due to Smartsheet’s rapidly growing product offering, the huge addressable market, its strong leadership team and consistent expansion within large enterprise customers, it should be considered as a long term investment. I expect the stock price to at least triple and reach a target of $140 in the next 5 years.

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